Because I need to get some money out of this somehow

I'm starting a pool: "Who's most likely to get a MacArthur Fellowship?" (Slate.com has some suggestions on how to best play the odds.)

Official rules:

• Entry fee is $50
  
• In order to enter this pool, I have to know you. I'm willing to be open-minded on this point, but if this is the first contact we've ever had, don't bother.
  
• I do not need to know your nominee, but you have to know your nominee. Again, I'm willing to be open-minded, but if you've never had a conversation with your nominee, don't bother.
  
• All money will be collected and distributed upon the awarding of a MacArthur Grant to a nominee in the pool. Don't send me money now, or if you do, don't expect to ever see it again. I will disavow the receipt of any money collected before the closing of the pool.
  
• Nominations should be made by posting a comment to this blog entry.
  
• I reserve the right to amend these rules as necessary (addendums will be dated and posted on this page), and I serve as final arbiter of all disputes.
  

My pick? Robin Sloan.